Really glad someone did this (and more glad it lines up with what I had been thinking and expecting). Next step (after cross checking with the vote validation file) would be to see what policies (if any) drove registered non-voters to stay home. I have some assumptions, but would be interested to see how well they play out.
I'm really interested in these findings, and appreciate this work! However, I haven't been able to replicate the pres vote preference finding from the 2024 CCES. I'm also confused about the use of the commonweight variable for post-election findings (according to the 2020 CCES docmentation, post-election variables should be analyzed using commonweightpost, which I don't believe has been released yet). Possible to post some code for replication?
Registered but not voting is a rebuke to Biden administration policy too, isn't it? Anyway, I'm more concerned about the large swath of unregistered/registered non-voters. They can swing an election decisively, yet I have a feeling that the current polarization of politics, relying on the scaring tactics, makes the polarization even worse, because all you need to do is to paint the opponent unbearably extreme to the independent in the middle. In other words, you are scaring them into your camp, not pulling them, and so you can afford to be a little more extreme on your end to appeal to your base.
I’d suspect (based on no hard evidence) that Democrats would outperform in either low or near total turnout, while the Republicans do best in regular high turnout races. The Trump coalition largely swapped out college educated rich voters (who are mostly likely to vote) for (mostly white) working class voters (who are likely to vote for president), without really changing the group of registered voters who don’t care or can’t afford to vote. The shift in who does best in low-turnout elections seems to be interesting and may be important going forward. But I think that there’s too much extrapolation to the political landscape at large of this shift, certainly too much to say that stricter voter ID laws would actually help Democrats. I’d bet any voter ID law would just make it hard enough to keep least likely voters from voting while not substantially affecting the now more republican base among those who could but usually don’t.
Registered but not voting is a rebuke to Biden administration policy too, isn't it? Anyway, I'm more concerned about the large swath of unregistered/registered non-voters. They can swing an election decisively, yet I have a feeling that the current polarization of politics, relying on the scaring tactics, makes the polarization even worse, because all you need to do is to paint the other end unbearably extreme to the independent in the middle. In other words, you are scaring them into your camp, not pulling them, and so you can afford to be a little more extreme on your end.
I'm so glad you did this.
Really glad someone did this (and more glad it lines up with what I had been thinking and expecting). Next step (after cross checking with the vote validation file) would be to see what policies (if any) drove registered non-voters to stay home. I have some assumptions, but would be interested to see how well they play out.
Then why the hell did these people not vote?!
I'm really interested in these findings, and appreciate this work! However, I haven't been able to replicate the pres vote preference finding from the 2024 CCES. I'm also confused about the use of the commonweight variable for post-election findings (according to the 2020 CCES docmentation, post-election variables should be analyzed using commonweightpost, which I don't believe has been released yet). Possible to post some code for replication?
Registered but not voting is a rebuke to Biden administration policy too, isn't it? Anyway, I'm more concerned about the large swath of unregistered/registered non-voters. They can swing an election decisively, yet I have a feeling that the current polarization of politics, relying on the scaring tactics, makes the polarization even worse, because all you need to do is to paint the opponent unbearably extreme to the independent in the middle. In other words, you are scaring them into your camp, not pulling them, and so you can afford to be a little more extreme on your end to appeal to your base.
I’d suspect (based on no hard evidence) that Democrats would outperform in either low or near total turnout, while the Republicans do best in regular high turnout races. The Trump coalition largely swapped out college educated rich voters (who are mostly likely to vote) for (mostly white) working class voters (who are likely to vote for president), without really changing the group of registered voters who don’t care or can’t afford to vote. The shift in who does best in low-turnout elections seems to be interesting and may be important going forward. But I think that there’s too much extrapolation to the political landscape at large of this shift, certainly too much to say that stricter voter ID laws would actually help Democrats. I’d bet any voter ID law would just make it hard enough to keep least likely voters from voting while not substantially affecting the now more republican base among those who could but usually don’t.
Registered but not voting is a rebuke to Biden administration policy too, isn't it? Anyway, I'm more concerned about the large swath of unregistered/registered non-voters. They can swing an election decisively, yet I have a feeling that the current polarization of politics, relying on the scaring tactics, makes the polarization even worse, because all you need to do is to paint the other end unbearably extreme to the independent in the middle. In other words, you are scaring them into your camp, not pulling them, and so you can afford to be a little more extreme on your end.
So why did Dems lose? Why are all levels of government so conservative (Republican)?
I wonder if they will vote next time? 🤨
This shouldn't be news to anyone. Historically, far more Dems stay home.
Never said they did!
Voter suppression worked just fine.
Turning off voters is fine for the anti democracy conspiracy.
See brexit
When you say non voters who are registered strongly favored Harris is that preference strength or by percentage of response?